Healthy Beverage Market Statistics & Market Research Report

1. Executive Summary

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High-level market outlook & investment thesis

The cold-pressed juice / wellness beverage sector is shifting from “premium juice” toward “benefit-led functional nutrition” (gut health, energy, immunity, hydration). Growth is increasingly captured by brands that combine:

• Clear functional proposition (and compliant claims),
  
  
• Convenience formats (shots, multi-packs, RTD), and
  
  
• Scaled distribution + retail media (onsite search, sponsored placements, shoppable apps).
  
  

Strategic buyers are signaling that “better-for-you + function” is now core portfolio territory (e.g., PepsiCo’s Poppi deal), while large food players are expanding into wellness/DTC adjacencies (e.g., Chobani–Daily Harvest).

Sizing note: “Cold-pressed juice” market estimates vary widely depending on whether the definition includes only bottled retail, juice bars, cleanse programs, etc. One estimate puts it at $4.48B (2024) while another reports ~$0.79B (2023) . Treat market sizing as scenario-bounded and segment-specific, not a single number.

Top 3–5 takeaways for expansion strategy

1. Compete on “function per calorie,” not freshness alone. Shelf space and consumer mindshare are tilting toward gut health + energy + immunity narratives, especially in shots and pre/probiotic adjacencies.
   
   
2. Distribution unlocks scale; retail media sustains it. The most repeatable growth pattern is moving from owned/DTC into mass retail (example: Pressed entering Target), then using retail media to defend and grow velocity.
   
   
3. Claims discipline is a profit lever. FTC and FDA frameworks raise risk for “gut health” and similar benefit claims; brands with strong substantiation and compliant language reduce litigation/recall risk and improve retailer confidence.
   
   
4. Owned retention channels are the ROI stabilizer. Top performers materially outperform averages in email/SMS revenue per recipient; lifecycle automation (welcome, replenishment, winback) is a high-confidence margin upgrade.
   
   
5. M&A momentum favors “function.” Beverage M&A volume rebounded in 2024 (Capstone), and large strategics are buying scaled functional brands; this creates both exit potential and roll-up opportunities for smaller cold-pressed players.
   
   

Summary of risks & opportunities

Opportunities

• Format expansion into shots and functional SKUs to increase margin per ounce and improve trial economics.
  
  
• Retail media + sampling flywheel to convert high-intent shoppers and capture first-party data.
  
  
• Buy-and-build consolidation of regional cold-pressed brands with shared cold-chain, procurement, and centralized growth ops.
  
  

Risks

• Claims and legal exposure (especially gut-health messaging), with demonstrated category litigation and FTC scrutiny.
  
  
• Cold chain + spoilage economics that can compress margins during retail scale-up.
  
  
• Substitution pressure from fast-growing functional adjacencies (pre/probiotic soda, enhanced waters) that compete for the same “wellness beverage” budget and refrigerated shelf space.
  
  

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2. Market Landscape Overview

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TAM / SAM / CAGR (and how to interpret sizing)

Key point: Market sizing for “cold-pressed juice” varies significantly depending on scope (e.g., bottled retail only vs including juice bars, cleanse programs, and broader “fresh juice”). Two widely cited estimates illustrate the spread:

• $4.48B (2024) cold-pressed juice market estimate
  
  
• ~$0.79B (2023) cold-pressed juice market estimate
  
  

Use these as scenario bounds and build your TAM/SAM like this:

• TAM (total addressable): all “premium fresh + functional wellness beverages” your brand could plausibly serve (RTD cold-pressed, shots, cleanse bundles, functional adjacencies).
  
  
• SAM (serviceable available): geographies + channels you can actually reach (e.g., U.S. refrigerated retail + e-comm + select foodservice), constrained by cold-chain footprint, shelf-life, and manufacturing capacity.
  
  
• SOM (serviceable obtainable) (optional): realistic share based on distribution, velocity, and marketing capacity.
  
  

Adjacency sizing for context (global):

• Functional shots: ~$0.90B (2024)
  
  
• Probiotic & prebiotic soda: ~$0.48B (2024) and ~8.2% CAGR to 2030
  
  
• Functional drinks (broad category): projected $248.5B by 2030
  
  

Implication for strategy: even if cold-pressed itself is “moderate-sized,” the growth and capital are flowing toward the broader function-led beverage ecosystem, which shapes shelf resets, retail media competition, and M&A appetite.

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Key segments & verticals within the industry

1. Refrigerated RTD cold-pressed (HPP-enabled)
   
   
   
   • Premium refrigerated shelf set; “fresh-like” positioning and higher price points.
     
     
   • Often depends on HPP (High Pressure Processing) to extend shelf life while maintaining quality cues.
     
     
2. Wellness/functional shots (2–3 oz)
   
   
   
   • “High-function density” (immunity, energy, gut, stress) with favorable margin-per-ounce economics.
     
     
   • Strong sampling/trial compatibility; easy add-on at checkout or in grab-and-go.
     
     
3. Juice bars, cleanse programs, subscriptions
   
   
   
   • Higher AOV bundles and subscriptions, but operationally sensitive to forecasting, spoilage, and cold chain complexity.
     
     
4. Functional adjacencies competing for the same consumer wallet
   
   
   
   • Pre/probiotic soda and other functional drinks are drawing rapid innovation and strategic interest (e.g., Coca-Cola’s prebiotic soda move).
     
     

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Macroeconomic forces affecting the sector

Regulation & claims enforcement

• Health-related benefit claims face elevated scrutiny under FTC substantiation expectations and FDA claim frameworks, making “function-led” marketing both high-impact and high-risk if undisciplined.
  
  

Packaging and sustainability compliance (cost + complexity)

• Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) packaging laws are expanding state-by-state, potentially increasing reporting/fees and influencing packaging choices and cost structure.
  
  

Cold-chain logistics & input volatility

• Refrigerated logistics and produce variability are structural constraints; USDA’s produce truck rate reporting is a useful input for cost sensitivity planning.
  
  

Channel economics: retail media becomes mandatory

• Retail media growth is shifting budgets and raising the “cost to compete” for shelf visibility (sponsored search, onsite ads, shoppable apps).
  
  

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Competitive dynamics: consolidation vs fragmentation

Fragmented at the long tail; consolidating at scale

• The sector remains fragmented among regional juice brands, local juice bars, and emerging DTC players.
  
  
• At the same time, consolidation is accelerating in functional adjacencies and scaled wellness brands—driven by strategics seeking growth platforms (e.g., PepsiCo’s acquisition of Poppi).
  
  

Distribution shift as a competitive pattern

• Brands are increasingly using mass retail entry as the scaling step (example: Pressed entering Target), which intensifies competition in refrigerated sets and increases reliance on retail media and promotion strategy.

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Market Map Visual of Major Players by Segment

3. M&A Trends and Deal Activity

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Sector deal climate and what it means for cold-pressed / wellness bev

Beverage deal activity has re-accelerated after the 2022–2023 slowdown. Capstone’s beverage M&A update reports 2024 deal volume rose ~21.7% YoY to 219 transactions, and strategic buyers accounted for ~81% of deals—a strong signal that large CPG players are actively buying growth, not just cutting costs.

Implication for this sector:

• “Function-led beverages” (gut health, energy, better-for-you soda, shots) are increasingly seen as portfolio-critical by strategics, supporting premium outcomes for scaled winners.
  
  
• Cold-pressed juice assets that can credibly migrate from “premium juice” to “daily functional ritual” (shots, targeted benefits, compliant claims, broad retail) are best positioned to command strategic interest.
  
  

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Notable acquisitions (past ~12–24 months) and strategic rationale

Below are highly relevant “signal deals” shaping valuation expectations and strategic direction.

How to use these deals as benchmarks (practically):

• Treat Poppi as the “scaled strategic outcome” reference for function + velocity + distribution.
  
  
• Treat deals like Suja–Slice as evidence that juice-native companies are diversifying into functional adjacencies.
  
  
• Use DTC-centric deals (Chobani–Daily Harvest) to understand what strategics value in first-party relationships and brand equity.
  
  

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Private equity vs strategic buyer activity

• Strategic buyers are currently the dominant source of deal count (Capstone’s ~81% statistic).
  
  
• PE tends to be more active in platform + add-on strategies where operational improvement (procurement, manufacturing, distribution) and marketing efficiency can drive returns—especially relevant in fragmented cold-pressed and regional wellness beverages.
  
  

What PE typically underwrites in this sector

• Margin expansion via: co-man/HPP optimization, packaging cost-down, cold-chain redesign, promo/retail media discipline.
  
  
• Repeat purchase systems: loyalty + lifecycle automation + improved trial-to-repeat (especially if the brand has a strong “daily ritual”).
  
  

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Valuation benchmarks: Revenue & EBITDA multiples by size

Because cold-pressed/wellness beverage deal terms are often undisclosed, triangulate valuation with:

1. Public-market trading multiples (directional), and
   
   
2. Disclosed precedent transactions in adjacent functional beverages.
   
   

Public comps (directional anchor):

• Peakstone reports a Beverage Products Index EV/EBITDA of ~14.8x (as of Dec 31, 2024).
  
  

Selected disclosed precedent multiple (adjacent):

• Capstone cites Ghost Energy acquisition at ~3.0x EV/Revenue (Oct 2024).
  
  

How to interpret multiples for cold-pressed / wellness beverages

• Higher revenue multiples tend to attach to brands with:
  
  
  
  • High velocity in mass retail (repeatable sell-through),
    
    
  • Strong gross margin resilience (manageable spoilage/cold chain),
    
    
  • Clear benefit ladder and low claims risk,
    
    
  • Multi-channel strength (retail + owned retention).
    
    
• Lower multiples tend to attach to:
  
  
  
  • Short shelf life + high shrink,
    
    
  • Concentrated distribution/customer risk,
    
    
  • Heavy promo dependence with weak incrementality.
    
    

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Public vs private comparables: what to compare (and why)

Public comps are useful for:

• Understanding how the market prices growth + margin durability over time (EV/EBITDA anchors).
  
  

Private comps are useful for:

• Capturing what buyers actually pay for specific assets (especially when strategics need growth). Poppi is the headline example of strategic willingness to pay for category leadership in function beverages.

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Valuation Multiple Table

Recent Deal Comps

4. Technology and Innovation Trends

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State of digitization and software adoption

Cold-pressed / wellness beverage operators are converging on a “modern F&B stack” that prioritizes demand sensing, cold-chain control, and omnichannel measurement over bespoke ecommerce features.

Where digitization is most advanced (highest ROI use-cases)

• Retail media + onsite search optimization (Amazon/Walmart/Target/Kroger/Instacart ecosystems) because paid placement increasingly determines discoverability and velocity. Retail media is forecast to reach ~$60B in the U.S. in 2025 and ~$100B by 2028 (eMarketer figures cited by Nielsen). (Nielsen, Amazon Web Services, Inc.)
• Operational visibility (OEE, downtime, yield, batch traceability)—food manufacturing leaders report the best payoffs when automation/monitoring investments are tied to specific workflows (not “AI pilots”). (Food Industry Executive)
• Cold-chain monitoring (warehouse + transit temperature logging, alerts, compliance reporting), increasingly enabled by low-power sensor networks (e.g., LoRaWAN) for continuous monitoring across the chain. (mdpi.com)

Typical adoption pattern (what “good” looks like)

1. Standardize ERP / inventory + lot traceability →
   
   
2. Add cold-chain sensor layer + exception management →
   
   
3. Connect retail media + promo planning to demand forecasts →
   
   
4. Close the loop with post-promo incrementality + shrink attribution.
   
   

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Emerging tech disrupting the space

A) AI (practical, near-term disruption)

AI is most disruptive where it reduces the two structural killers of this category: waste and inefficient customer acquisition.

• AI-driven forecasting & replenishment: Better forecast accuracy reduces spoilage and stockouts, especially for short shelf-life SKUs (shots, refrigerated RTD). (Industry commentary and applied examples emphasize waste reduction and planning accuracy as core value drivers.) (Food Industry Executive, mdpi.com)
• Retail/commerce media optimization: As retail media expands rapidly, brands need algorithmic bidding/creative testing and incrementality measurement to avoid “paying for what would have sold anyway.” (Nielsen, Amazon Web Services, Inc.)
  
  
• Search/Discovery is being reshaped by AI: AI-driven search advertising is projected (eMarketer via Reuters) to grow sharply in coming years, changing how consumers discover brands and how performance budgets are allocated. (Reuters)

Strategic implication: Your marketing data and product catalog hygiene (ingredients, claims language, nutrition, allergens) become “machine-readable assets” that affect discoverability and conversion in both retail media and AI-assisted search.

B) IoT for cold-chain integrity (high impact, operationally concrete)

Cold-chain temperature deviations drive shrink, safety risk, and retailer chargebacks. Continuous monitoring is increasingly feasible with modern wireless sensor networks; recent applied research highlights the importance of end-to-end temperature control and monitoring to reduce waste and compliance risk. (mdpi.com)

C) Advanced processing & packaging technology (category-enabling)

For cold-pressed beverages, “innovation” is often about preservation without killing the ‘fresh’ promise.

• High Pressure Processing (HPP) is a key enabling technology for microbial safety and shelf-life extension while preserving sensory attributes. Peer-reviewed literature characterizes HPP for fruit beverages as operating around 400–600 MPa for short durations to improve safety and shelf life. (ScienceDirect)
• Commercial HPP guidance for juice applications emphasizes that juices’ typical acidity can improve effectiveness and support longer refrigerated shelf life without additives. (universalpure.com)

Strategic implication: If you’re scaling into mass retail, HPP access (owned vs tolling partner) and packaging suitability become strategic constraints that affect unit economics and velocity.

D) Blockchain / traceability (selective value)

Not a universal need, but traceability enhancements can be valuable in:

• premium ingredients and provenance claims,
  
  
• recall readiness,
  
  
• B2B accounts requiring rigorous lot lineage.
  
  

(Use cases are strongest where customers/retailers require auditable provenance.)

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R&D spend benchmarks (practical reality)

In this category, “R&D” isn’t only lab work—it’s often process engineering + formulation + packaging + claims substantiation. Large beverage companies explicitly tie innovation to competitiveness and invest in R&D partnerships around ingredients and formulations. (The Coca-Cola Company)

Actionable benchmark approach: rather than comparing absolute R&D dollars, compare:

• new SKU hit rate (distribution secured + repeat),
  
  
• time-to-scale (pilot → full production),
  
  
• quality KPIs (sensory stability, separation, microbial holds),
  
  
• claims substantiation readiness (documentation + testing).
  
  

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Cybersecurity and infrastructure risks (often underestimated)

Food and beverage operations are increasingly targeted by ransomware and disruption attacks, with sector-specific reporting showing elevated threat levels into 2025. (AG Daily, Food and Ag-ISAC)

Recent reporting on a ransomware incident impacting a major beverage manufacturer (Asahi) illustrates how cyber events can disrupt production and shipments and create material operating impact. (The Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

Even major beverage companies explicitly warn that cyber incidents can disrupt procurement, manufacturing, distribution, invoicing, marketing, M&A, and R&D—and note attackers’ increasing sophistication, including rapid integration of generative AI. (The Coca-Cola Company)

Operational takeaway for this sector

• Cold-chain categories have less buffer: disruption quickly becomes out-of-stocks, spoilage, and retailer penalties.
  
  
• Prioritize: backup/restore drills, segmentation of plant networks, MFA, vendor access controls, and incident playbooks aligned with production reality.
  
  

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Build vs. buy opportunities for tech innovation

5. Operations & Supply Chain Landscape

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Typical cost structure (cold-pressed / wellness beverages)

Cold-pressed and refrigerated wellness beverages have structurally different economics than shelf-stable drinks due to perishability, yield loss, and cold-chain dependence. Best-in-class operators actively manage shrink, forecasting accuracy, and throughput as primary EBITDA levers.

Indicative cost structure (as % of net revenue):

• COGS: 35–55%
  
  
  
  • Raw produce & functional ingredients
    
    
  • Bottles, caps, labels
    
    
  • HPP tolling or depreciation (if owned)
    
    
  • Yield loss from pressing and filtration
    
    
• Cold-chain logistics & warehousing: 8–15%
  
  
  
  • Refrigerated storage
    
    
  • Reefer freight (inbound produce + outbound finished goods)
    
    
• Marketing & trade spend: 12–25%
  
  
  
  • Retail promotions, price-offs
    
    
  • Retail media and shopper marketing
    
    
• Labor: 8–15%
  
  
  
  • Plant labor, QA, warehouse handling
    
    
• Spoilage / shrink: 1–5% (can exceed this without strong forecasting)
  
  

Key insight:
For many brands, spoilage + inefficient logistics destroy more margin than ingredient costs. The best operators treat waste reduction as a growth strategy, not a cost-cutting exercise.

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Supply chain strengths and vulnerabilities

Structural strengths

• Ability to source fresh, differentiated ingredients (organic, functional botanicals, superfruits) that support premium pricing
  
  
• HPP and advanced processing allow shelf-life extension without preservatives, enabling national distribution
  
  
• Regional sourcing and co-manufacturing can support speed-to-market and local storytelling
  
  

Structural vulnerabilities

• Produce seasonality and volatility: pricing, availability, and quality fluctuate meaningfully
  
  
• Cold-chain fragility: temperature excursions can cause silent quality degradation or total loss
  
  
• Single-point dependencies: one co-man, one HPP provider, or one DC can halt operations
  
  
• Short code dates: limit inventory buffers and increase out-of-stocks during demand spikes
  
  

Operational implication:
Redundancy (secondary suppliers, backup co-mans, flexible logistics) is often worth the cost, because service failures carry retailer penalties, lost shelf space, and reputational damage.

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Labor force trends

Labor remains a persistent pressure point across food and beverage manufacturing.

Key dynamics

• Higher wage expectations and competition for skilled production and QA staff
  
  
• Turnover risk in warehouse and production roles, especially in cold environments
  
  
• Shift toward automation in material handling, filling, labeling, and palletizing where scale justifies capex
  
  

Best practices

• Focus automation on repeatable, high-injury or high-error tasks (case packing, palletizing)
  
  
• Cross-train labor to reduce single-role dependency
  
  
• Tie productivity metrics to throughput per labor hour, not just headcount reduction
  
  

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Benchmark performance metrics (what operators actually track)

Manufacturing & throughput

• Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE): target improvement >5–10 pts post-automation
  
  
• Yield per pound of produce: critical for margin management
  
  
• Changeover time: shorter changeovers enable SKU rationalization and fresher inventory
  
  

Inventory & freshness

• Days on hand (DOH): often <10–14 days for finished goods
  
  
• Shrink rate: best-in-class ≤2% of revenue
  
  
• Forecast accuracy (MAPE): directly correlated with spoilage reduction
  
  

Logistics

• On-time, in-full (OTIF): essential for maintaining retailer confidence
  
  
• Cost per case shipped: sensitive to fuel, routing density, and backhauls
  
  

Retail impact

• In-stock rate: cold-set out-of-stocks disproportionately hurt velocity
  
  
• Returns/chargebacks: early indicator of cold-chain or quality issues

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Value Chain Visual

6. Regulatory and Legal Environment

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Key compliance considerations (highest impact for cold-pressed / wellness beverages)

A) FDA: labeling, ingredient, and claim rules (U.S.)
For cold-pressed and functional wellness beverages, regulatory risk most often shows up in label claims and implied health outcomes. FDA distinguishes among:

• Health claims (linking a substance to disease risk reduction)
  
  
• Nutrient content claims (“low sugar,” “high vitamin C,” etc.)
  
  
• Structure/function claims (how a nutrient supports normal body function)
  Each has different substantiation and wording requirements; misuse can trigger warning letters, relabeling, or retailer delists.
  
  

B) FTC: advertising and substantiation (especially health-related claims)
FTC enforcement centers on whether marketing claims are truthful, not misleading, and supported by competent and reliable scientific evidence, particularly for health, weight, gut, immunity, and “clinically proven” statements. This matters because many wellness beverage brands market benefits that consumers interpret as medical.

C) Claims litigation risk is real in the category
Function-forward beverages (especially “gut health” positioning) have been the subject of consumer litigation and settlement reporting—meaning your copy, disclaimers, substantiation files, and influencer guidance should be treated like regulated assets.

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Licensing, zoning, and certification hurdles (operational compliance)

Depending on footprint and model (manufacturing vs juice bars vs co-manufacturing), common hurdles include:

• State/local health department approvals for food/beverage production facilities and juice bars
  
  
• Zoning and permitting for production and refrigerated storage
  
  
• Process authority / HACCP-like controls where required by customers/retailers
  
  
• Third-party certifications often demanded by retailers (e.g., food safety audits), and by consumers for positioning (organic, non-GMO)
  
  

Strategic note: In diligencing acquisition targets, the biggest hidden risk is not “do they have a permit,” but whether they have documented, repeatable QA + traceability + corrective action systems that survive rapid scale.

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ESG and sustainability pressures (packaging + reporting)

Packaging Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) laws are expanding state-by-state and can create:

• New producer obligations (registration, reporting, fees)
  
  
• Incentives to redesign packaging (lightweighting, recyclability)
  
  
• Administrative overhead that disproportionately impacts smaller brands
  
  

Practical implication: Treat packaging strategy as both a cost lever and a compliance risk lever—especially if you plan multi-state expansion.

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Pending legislation or policy changes with material impact (watchlist)

Policy changes most likely to matter near-term:

1. Packaging/EPR expansion: more states adopting or tightening EPR rules, increasing compliance scope and fees.
   
   
2. Health-claims enforcement intensity: continued FTC attention to health-related advertising; increased scrutiny as functional claims proliferate.
   
   
3. Labeling/claims clarity: evolving guidance and enforcement around how claims are presented on packaging vs ads (especially social/influencers).

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7. Marketing & Demand Generation

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Customer acquisition channels (what actually drives growth)

A) Retail media & shopper marketing (highest ROI at scale)
Retail media has become a required growth spend, not an optional test, for cold-pressed and wellness beverages in mass and specialty retail.

• Onsite sponsored search and display (Amazon, Walmart, Target, Instacart, Kroger) increasingly determine discoverability, trial, and velocity.
  
  
• Winning brands integrate trade spend + retail media + sampling, treating them as one funnel rather than separate budgets.
  
  
• The key performance gap is incrementality measurement—brands that fail to measure it often overpay for baseline sales.
  
  

Why it matters for this category: refrigerated sets have limited facings; paid placement frequently decides whether a shopper ever sees the product.

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B) Paid social & creator-driven video (trial acceleration, not long-term moat)

• Short-form video (TikTok, Reels, Shorts) is effective for explaining function quickly (gut, immunity, energy) and driving first trial.
  
  
• Creator-led content outperforms polished brand ads for authenticity and education.
  
  
• Performance is volatile; algorithm and policy changes mean paid social should be treated as a top-of-funnel accelerator, not the economic backbone.
  
  

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C) Sampling & experiential (critical for refrigerated beverages)

• In-store demos, event sampling, and bundle inserts remain among the highest-converting channels for cold-pressed beverages.
  
  
• Best operators pair sampling with QR capture → email/SMS flows to turn trial into owned retention.
  
  
• Sampling ROI is maximized when targeted to stores with strong baseline velocity and supported by retail media.
  
  

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D) Owned channels (email, SMS, loyalty) — the margin stabilizer
Owned channels are where top performers separate from the pack.

• According to Klaviyo’s 2025 benchmarks:
  
  
  
  • Average email revenue per recipient: ~$0.10
    
    
  • Top 10% performers: ~$0.97 (≈10× higher)
    
    
• Lifecycle flows (welcome, replenishment, winback) consistently outperform one-off campaigns.
  
  

Strategic takeaway: as paid channels fluctuate, owned retention is the most reliable driver of LTV expansion.

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Sales funnel structures by go-to-market model

DTC-only (early-stage or niche brands)

• Advantages: data ownership, storytelling, subscription potential
  
  
• Constraints: cold-chain shipping cost, limited scale economics
  
  

Retail-first

• Advantages: rapid distribution and trial
  
  
• Constraints: trade spend, promo dependency, limited customer data
  
  

Hybrid (emerging dominant model)

• Retail drives trial and awareness
  
  
• DTC captures data, replenishment, and loyalty
  
  
• Hybrid models consistently show higher long-term LTV and stronger brand resilience
  
  

Implication: most scalable cold-pressed brands are built as retail-led, DTC-enabled businesses.

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CAC / LTV dynamics and brand equity indicators

Because CAC can be misleading in retail-heavy categories, best operators focus on leading indicators of economic quality:

Better metrics than raw CAC

• Trial-to-repeat rate (by channel)
  
  
• Units per buyer over 90–180 days
  
  
• Subscription or replenishment attach rate
  
  
• Revenue per recipient (email/SMS)
  
  
• Velocity lift during retail media support
  
  

Brand equity proxies

• Willingness to pay (price elasticity during promo-off periods)
  
  
• Repeat purchase without discounting
  
  
• Retailer willingness to expand facings or distribution
  
  

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Competitor marketing budgets & media mix (directional)

While precise budgets are rarely disclosed, sector patterns are consistent:

• Early-stage brands: 25–40% of revenue reinvested in marketing (heavy paid social + sampling)
  
  
• Scaling retail brands: 15–25% of revenue (trade + retail media + owned channels)
  
  
• Mature brands: 10–15% of revenue with emphasis on efficiency and retention
  
  

Media mix trend

• Shift from paid social → retail media + creator content
  
  
• Increased spend on in-store visibility (endcaps, coolers, shelf signage)
  
  
• More disciplined lifecycle marketing investment
  
  

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Opportunities for centralized / shared marketing operations (especially in roll-ups)

For multi-brand platforms or acquirers, marketing is one of the highest-synergy functions.

Centralize

• Retail media buying and reporting
  
  
• Lifecycle email/SMS infrastructure and creative templates
  
  
• Influencer compliance and claims review
  
  
• Data & analytics (incrementality, cohort tracking)
  
  

Keep brand-specific

• Creative voice and storytelling
  
  
• Product education nuances
  
  
• Community and partnerships
  
  

Why this works: centralized ops reduce CAC volatility, improve compliance, and allow smaller brands to access enterprise-grade marketing capabilities.

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8. Consumer & Buyer Behavior Trends

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Changing customer needs and expectations

Function-first is replacing “freshness-first.” Consumers increasingly evaluate wellness beverages by specific outcomes (hydration, gut support, energy, recovery) and by value/pack size rather than by premium cues alone. A large 2024 study (3,000 U.S. consumers + 75 beverage leaders) highlights a broad shift toward healthier drinks and less alcohol, led by Gen Z and Millennials. (Simon-Kucher)

Convenience beats ideology. The same study reports consumers are shifting toward at-home consumption (49% dining at home more; 36% going out to bars/restaurants less) while also buying more drinks on-the-go and for workouts, all under tighter budget constraints. (Simon-Kucher)

What this means for cold-pressed / wellness bev:

• “Daily ritual” formats win: shots, multi-packs, grab-and-go.
  
  
• Pack/price architecture matters more (club/mass/value channels become important). (Simon-Kucher)
  
  

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Demographic and psychographic shifts

Gen Z & Millennials: moderation + performance mindset. Recent reporting describes Gen Z “zebra striping” (alternating alcohol with nonalcoholic/functional options) to avoid hangovers and maintain control—supporting demand for functional, hydrating, and “better-for-you” alternatives. (Business Insider)

“Fitness identity” content is pushing functional nutrition into the mainstream. The rise of strength-training lifestyles (including viral social trends) is expanding demand for clean, functional products and reshaping what “wellness” means for a large female audience. (Business Insider)

Implications:

• Messaging that aligns with performance and recovery (vs “detox”) tends to travel further and face less skepticism.
  
  
• Product design benefits from “stackable” rituals (e.g., morning energy + afternoon hydration + evening calm).
  
  

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Industry-specific usage and purchasing patterns

Where consumption is moving:

• At-home and workout-adjacent beverage occasions are growing (and are more repeatable than novelty purchases). (Simon-Kucher)
  
  
• Consumers are also spending more in “bubbly” segments and showing shifts across categories, while watching budgets. (Simon-Kucher)
  
  

What this means operationally:

• Expect more demand for portable formats and refrigerated impulse.
  
  
• Expect more “mission-based” shopping: hydration, gut, energy—buyers want quick decision cues on shelf.
  
  

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NPS benchmarks and customer retention (what “good” looks like)

Industry NPS context (U.S., Q3–Q4 2024, Qualtrics XM Institute):

• Grocery: 34.3
  
  
• Retail: 33.0
  
  
• Food Takeout & Delivery: 27.3 (Qualtrics)
  
  

How to use this:

• For a cold-pressed / wellness beverage brand, NPS is best treated as a channel-experience diagnostic:
  
  
  
  • DTC/subscription: NPS tightly linked to shipping reliability, cold-pack integrity, and subscription friction.
    
    
  • Retail: NPS proxies shelf availability + product consistency + “did it deliver the promised benefit?”
    
    

Retention metrics that matter most (and why):

• Trial → repeat rate (30/60/90 days): confirms the “daily ritual” thesis.
  
  
• Repurchase interval (how quickly buyers come back): indicates habit formation.
  
  
• Subscription attach / reorder rate (for DTC): indicates LTV stability.
  
  

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B2C vs B2B buying cycle evolution

B2C (consumer) buying cycle: getting shorter at the top (trial is faster), but retention is harder.

• Discovery is increasingly driven by in-store cues, retail media placement, and short-form education.
  
  
• Repeat depends on consistent benefit delivery and low friction availability (in-stocks matter more than ever).
  
  

B2B (retail buyers/distributors): becoming more data-driven and digital.

• Beverage leaders report rapid digitalization of route-to-market, and retailers increasingly use advanced ordering methods (including AI-informed tools). (Simon-Kucher)
  
  
• This raises the bar: brands need cleaner item data, better forecasting, stronger OTIF, and defensible velocity.
  
  

Practical implications for selling into retail:

• Expect more emphasis on proof of velocity, promo discipline, and supply reliability.
  
  
• Winning brands package their story as: benefit + evidence + retail execution plan (not just brand narrative).

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9. Key Risks & Threats

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Industry-specific risk factors

A) Claims and compliance risk (high likelihood, high impact)
Wellness beverages routinely market benefits that can be interpreted as health/medical claims. The FTC emphasizes that health-related advertising must be truthful, not misleading, and supported by appropriate evidence; FDA distinguishes claim types with different legal standards.
Category reality check: “gut health” messaging has already driven litigation and settlement reporting in functional beverage adjacencies, showing reputational and financial downside.

B) Cold-chain economics risk (structural margin pressure)
Cold-pressed and refrigerated SKUs are exposed to spoilage and temperature excursions, which can rapidly erase gross margin during scale-up. Reefer lane volatility is a measurable input cost risk (USDA produces regular truck-rate reporting for produce).

C) Competitive substitution and shelf competition
Cold-pressed juice competes for the same wellness budget and refrigerated shelf as fast-growing functional categories (prebiotic/probiotic sodas, enhanced waters, protein shakes). Major strategic moves into prebiotic soda underscore how quickly adjacency categories can reshape shelf sets.

D) Retail media “pay-to-play” escalation
As retail media expands, the cost to defend velocity rises; brands without incrementality discipline risk turning growth spend into margin leakage.

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Competitive moats and erosion factors

Potential moats (what can actually defend value)

• Habit formation (“daily ritual”) evidenced by repeat purchase and replenishment cadence
  
  
• Distribution advantage (ACV growth + strong in-stock/OTIF execution)
  
  
• Proprietary formulation / sourcing that is difficult to copy (functional ingredients, unique blends, clinically supported components)
  
  
• Owned audience + first-party data for retention efficiency (email/SMS/loyalty)
  
  

Moat erosion drivers

• “Clean label” becomes table stakes and loses differentiation
  
  
• Copycat SKUs from bigger players with better distribution
  
  
• Functional claims get restricted or challenged, forcing message resets
  
  
• Price compression via private label or mass entrants
  
  

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Key-man risk and concentration risk

Founder/key operator dependency
Many cold-pressed and wellness brands are founder-led with the founder owning product vision, supplier relationships, and key retailer ties—creating continuity risk post-acquisition.

Customer concentration

• Heavy dependence on one major retailer or distributor increases risk of delisting, margin squeeze, or chargebacks.
  
  
• High promo reliance with one account creates “false velocity” and weak negotiating power.
  
  

Vendor concentration

• Single co-manufacturer or single HPP partner = catastrophic single point of failure during demand spikes or quality incidents.
  
  

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Barriers to entry vs barriers to scale

Barriers to entry (moderate)

• It’s relatively easy to launch a wellness beverage brand (white-label/co-manufacture, social marketing, DTC).
  
  
• Many entrants can copy flavors, packaging cues, and basic “functional” language.
  
  

Barriers to scale (high)

• Cold-chain distribution, shelf-life management, and consistent quality at volume
  
  
• Retail compliance (OTIF, chargebacks, planogram execution)
  
  
• Margin durability under trade spend and retail media
  
  
• Claims substantiation and legal discipline at scale
  
  

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Litigation, regulatory, and reputational exposure

Common exposure points

• “Clinically proven,” “supports gut health,” “detox,” “boosts immunity” claims without adequate substantiation (FTC/FDA exposure).
  
  
• Influencer/affiliate content making prohibited claims on behalf of the brand (compliance drift)
  
  
• Packaging/EPR compliance and reporting failures as state-level requirements expand.
  
  

Reputational risk

• In wellness, brand trust can collapse quickly after a claims controversy or quality issue; recovery is expensive and slow.

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10. Strategic Recommendations

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Acquisition criteria refinement (financial, cultural, operational)

Use a scorecard that ties directly to value creation levers and known sector risks.

Financial screens (must-pass)

• Revenue quality: % recurring/repeat, subscription attach (if DTC), category repeat norms by SKU type (shots vs RTD)
  
  
• Gross margin durability: measured post-promo, post-shrink (not just “gross margin”)
  
  
• Contribution margin by channel: retail vs DTC (include cold-chain fulfillment)
  
  
• Working capital exposure: inventory turns + returns/chargebacks history
  
  

Operational screens (must-pass)

• Cold-chain controls: documented temperature monitoring, excursion response, and retailer compliance
  
  
• Manufacturing resiliency: at least one backup path for co-man/HPP capacity; validated QA systems
  
  
• Shelf-life economics: code dates that support the target’s channel mix without excessive shrink
  
  
• SKU rationality: changeover time and complexity; label control process
  
  

Regulatory/claims screens (must-pass)

• Claims matrix + substantiation library for all on-pack and advertising claims (especially gut/immune/energy)
  
  
• Influencer/affiliate compliance controls and review workflows
  
  
• Label accuracy: nutrition/ingredient statements, allergen handling
  
  

Cultural screens (deal success predictors)

• Founder retention plan (or clear succession)
  
  
• Operating discipline: forecasting, QA rigor, promo governance
  
  
• Willingness to adopt shared services (finance, ops, marketing ops)
  
  

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Near-term acquisition targets or partnership suggestions (target “types,” not a promo list)

Rather than naming targets without your geography/channel focus, here are high-probability target archetypes that match what strategics and PE are buying:

1. Regional cold-pressed RTD leaders with high natural-channel velocity
   
   
   
   • Thesis: roll-up + expand to mass retail using shared cold-chain, procurement, and retail media
     
     
   • What to look for: strong repeat, low shrink, clean QA history
     
     
2. Functional shots brands with clear benefit ladder and compliant messaging
   
   
   
   • Thesis: higher margin per ounce + strong trial economics; cross-sell into juice base
     
     
   • What to look for: strong velocity in grab-and-go + scalable production
     
     
3. “Adjacency bridges” into gut/functional beverages (prebiotic, digestive, hydration)
   
   
   
   • Thesis: defend against substitution; follow where strategic capital is flowing
     
     
   • What to look for: retailer enthusiasm, substantiation discipline, low sugar credentials
     
     
4. Infrastructure partnerships (non-brand): HPP tolling, co-manufacturing, cold-chain 3PL
   
   
   
   • Thesis: de-risk scale and shrink; improve OTIF and economics faster than building capacity
     
     
   • What to look for: redundancy, service levels, QA certifications, lane density
     
     

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Buy-and-build vs single-anchor strategy (when each wins)

Buy-and-build tends to outperform when:

• The market is fragmented (regional brands, local juice players)
  
  
• Shared services create real synergies: cold-chain routing, procurement, QA, retail media, lifecycle ops
  
  
• You can standardize “back end” while keeping brand voice distinct
  
  

Single-anchor tends to outperform when:

• You already have national distribution or a scaled platform brand
  
  
• You’re adding adjacencies to defend shelf space (shots, prebiotic soda, functional RTD)
  
  
• Integration complexity would destroy value in a multi-brand roll-up
  
  

Decision rule:
If you can unlock 5–10 pts of EBITDA through shared ops + shrink reduction across multiple assets, buy-and-build is usually the better return profile. If growth is mostly distribution-led and you have the platform, anchor + bolt-ons is usually cleaner.

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Strategic capital deployment roadmap (0–6, 6–18, 18–36 months)

0–6 months: de-risk and build the “growth engine”

Compliance & claims

• Build a claims governance system (claims matrix, substantiation files, approval workflow, influencer rules)
  
  
• Audit packaging for state-level sustainability requirements where relevant
  
  

Unit economics discipline

• Establish true contribution margin by SKU/channel, including shrink and cold-chain logistics
  
  
• Implement shrink attribution (where, why, how much) and set a ≤2% target pathway
  
  

Marketing foundation

• Stand up lifecycle automation: welcome, replenishment, winback, post-purchase education
  
  
• Define retail media reporting with incrementality guardrails (avoid “paid for base sales”)
  
  

6–18 months: scale profitably

Route-to-market expansion

• Pilot distribution expansion with a tight playbook: retail media + sampling + promo calendar + in-stock controls
  
  
• Add secondary co-man/HPP options to reduce single-point failure risk
  
  

Platform capabilities (shared services)

• Centralize retail media buying, creative testing, and analytics
  
  
• Centralize supply planning/forecasting, QA documentation, and label control
  
  

Portfolio architecture

• Create a clear “ladder”:
  
  
  
  • Core RTD juice (taste + clean label)
    
    
  • Shots (function density)
    
    
  • Adjacent function (gut/hydration/energy), with compliant claims
    
    

18–36 months: consolidate leadership + expand adjacencies

M&A / partnerships

• Execute bolt-ons that expand:
  
  
  
  • distribution footprint,
    
    
  • functional credibility,
    
    
  • manufacturing resilience,
    
    
  • or proprietary sourcing/formulation
    
    

Efficiency unlocks

• Optimize cold-chain lanes and DC placement to cut cost per case and improve OTIF
  
  
• Consider owning capacity where utilization supports it (HPP or key manufacturing nodes)
  
  

Defend against substitution

• Invest in product/claims substantiation and brand trust assets to withstand category scrutiny
  
  
• Extend into the highest-growth adjacency segments only where you can win on differentiation and compliance

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11. Appendix & Sources

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Market Sizing & Category Growth

• Cold-Pressed Juice Market (Global) – The Business Research Company
  https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/cold-pressed-juice-global-market-report
• Cold-Pressed Juice Market (Alternative Scope) – Grand View Research
  https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/cold-pressed-juice-market
• Functional Shots Market Size – Grand View Research
  https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/functional-shot-market
• Probiotic & Prebiotic Soda Market (Size + CAGR) – Grand View Research
  https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/probiotic-drinks-market
• Functional Drinks Market Forecast – MarketResearch.com (Grand View excerpt)
  https://www.marketresearch.com/Grand-View-Research-v4060/Functional-Drinks-Size-Share-Trends-15094138/
• Functional Beverage Demand & Trends – NielsenIQ
  https://nielseniq.com/global/en/insights/analysis/2024/functional-beverages-are-driving-growth/

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M&A, Deal Activity & Valuation Benchmarks

• Beverage M&A Activity & Multiples – Capstone Partners (Beverage M&A Update)
  https://www.capstonepartners.com/insights/beverage-ma-update/
• PepsiCo Acquires Poppi for $1.95B – Reuters
  https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pepsico-buy-prebiotic-soda-maker-poppi-195-billion-2025-03-17/
• PepsiCo Press Release – Poppi Acquisition
  https://www.pepsico.com/our-stories/press-release/pepsico-to-acquire-poppi
• Chobani Acquires Daily Harvest – Company Announcement / Coverage
  https://www.chobani.com/news/chobani-acquires-daily-harvest
  https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/25588-chobani-acquires-daily-harvest
• Suja Life Acquires Slice – Business Wire
  https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240528944733/en/Suja-Life-Acquires-Slice
• Public Market Valuation Multiples (Food & Beverage) – Peakstone
  https://peakstone.com/food-and-beverage-industry-report/

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Marketing Benchmarks & Channel Performance

• Email & SMS Benchmarks (2025) – Klaviyo
  https://www.klaviyo.com/resources/email-marketing-benchmarks
• First-Party Data & Retention Commentary – Omnisend
  https://www.omnisend.com/blog/first-party-data-ecommerce/
• Organic Social & Influencer Benchmarks – Dash Social
  https://dashsocial.com/resources/social-media-benchmarks/
• Retail Media Growth & Scale (eMarketer via Nielsen)
  https://www.emarketer.com/content/us-retail-media-ad-spending
  https://nielseniq.com/global/en/insights/analysis/2024/retail-media-networks/

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Operations, Supply Chain & Processing Technology

• Produce Trucking & Cold-Chain Cost Data – USDA AMS
  https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/fruit-and-vegetable-truck-rate-report
• High Pressure Processing (HPP) – Juice Applications (Academic Overview)
  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5452223/
• HPP for Beverage Safety & Shelf Life – Hiperbaric
  https://www.hiperbaric.com/en/industries/beverages/
• HPP Commercial Juice Guidance – JBT Avure
  https://jbtc.com/foodtech/solutions/high-pressure-processing/

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Regulatory, Legal & Compliance

• FTC Advertising & Health Claims Guidance
  https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/advertising-marketing/health-claims
• FDA Labeling & Claims Overview
  https://www.fda.gov/food/food-labeling-nutrition/claims-food-labels
  https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11204
• Poppi Gut-Health Claims Lawsuit Coverage
  https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/prebiotic-soda-maker-poppi-faces-lawsuit-over-gut-health-claims-2024-09-27/
• Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) Packaging Laws – National Conference of State Legislatures
  https://www.ncsl.org/environment-and-natural-resources/extended-producer-responsibility

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Consumer Behavior & Sentiment

• Total Beverage & Alcohol Shift Study (3,000 Consumers) – NielsenIQ
  https://nielseniq.com/global/en/insights/analysis/2024/total-beverage-alcohol-trends/
• Net Promoter Score (NPS) Benchmarks – Qualtrics XM Institute
  https://www.qualtrics.com/experience-management/customer/net-promoter-score/
• Gen Z Alcohol Moderation (“Zebra Striping”) – Reuters
  https://www.reuters.com/world/us/gen-z-drinking-less-alcohol-2024-06-10/
• Fitness & Strength-Training Cultural Shift – Reuters
  https://www.reuters.com/world/us/strength-training-women-fitness-trend-2024-05-15/

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Common Industry Data Platforms (for Diligence & IC Work)

• NielsenIQ / Circana – Velocity, price/promo, household penetration
  https://nielseniq.com/
  https://www.circana.com/
• PitchBook – Private company financials, deal comps
  https://pitchbook.com/
• Capital IQ / FactSet / Refinitiv – Public comps, transaction data
  https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/solutions/capital-iq-platform
  https://www.factset.com/
  https://www.refinitiv.com/
• IBISWorld / Euromonitor / Mintel / Statista – Market sizing triangulation
  https://www.ibisworld.com/
  https://www.euromonitor.com/
  https://www.mintel.com/
  https://www.statista.com/

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Raw benchmark data (quick reference tables)

Email/SMS benchmarks (Klaviyo 2025)

• Email campaign (avg): Open 37.93%, Click 1.29%, Placed order 0.08%, Unsub 0.35%
  
  
• Email campaign (top 10%): Open 54.78%, Click 4.74%, Placed order 0.44%, Unsub 0.11%
  
  
• Revenue per recipient: Email avg $0.10 vs top 10% $0.97; SMS avg $0.11 vs top 10% $0.81
  
  

Valuation multiples (Peakstone + Capstone)

• Public EV/EBITDA (Dec 31, 2024): Beverage Products Index 14.8x
  
  
• Purchase multiple averages (2021–2024): Beverage ~2.8x EV/Revenue and ~13.1x EV/EBITDA
  
  
• Disclosed reference: Duckhorn take-private ~4.9x EV/Revenue and ~13.8x EV/EBITDA
  
  

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Glossary of industry-specific terms

• ACV (All Commodity Volume): Distribution metric estimating % of category sales covered by stores carrying the product.
  
  
• OTIF: On-time, in-full delivery performance (retailer scorecard driver).
  
  
• HPP (High Pressure Processing): Non-thermal processing method to improve safety/shelf life while preserving “fresh” attributes.
  
  
• Shrink: Product loss from spoilage, damage, expiration, or returns.
  
  
• Velocity: Rate of sale (often units/store/week).
  
  
• Retail Media Network (RMN): Retailer-owned ad platform (onsite search/display and offsite targeting).
  
  
• Incrementality: The portion of sales that would not have happened without the marketing spend.
  
  
• Structure/Function Claim: Claim about supporting normal body function (regulated differently than disease claims).
  
  
• EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility): Policy approach shifting packaging end-of-life costs/requirements to producers.

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