Let’s be honest: when people chat about venture capital, most of the attention goes to famous deals and market hype. But behind that buzz lies a little-discussed truth—when it comes to VC math, it often boils down to landing just that one unicorn to make the entire portfolio shine. If that sounds like an exaggeration, picture this scenario: You invest in ten different startups through a private investment platform.
Below, I’ll walk you through exactly why that one breakout star is so critical, and what it means for investors who are navigating the world of private placements.
There’s a common misunderstanding that you have to bat 1.000 (i.e., succeed with every pick). But venture capital doesn’t work like that. If one company in your portfolio becomes the next household name—think Airbnb, Uber, or any brand that started small but skyrocketed globally—its returns can dwarf all your other bets combined.
So, instead of feeling anxious if a few startups aren’t panning out, remember that the name of the game is often snagging that one major winner.
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Yes, some investors try to “spray and pray,” writing checks for anything that crosses their path, hoping one will inevitably take off. But, in reality, the better approach is a little more focused. It’s about understanding the markets, the management teams, and the growth potential.
This is why a reputable private investment platform can be handy—it usually does a chunk of that filtering for you, showing you options that have passed certain layers of scrutiny. You still want to dig deeper yourself, of course. After all, your gut feelings and personal research can go a long way.
“The power law” might sound like something out of a complex finance class, but in practical terms, it just means a handful of investments typically deliver most of the returns. The graph is often a hockey stick, with one or two deals shooting upward while the vast majority hang around the bottom. The moral? Don’t beat yourself up if you see mixed results across your portfolio. That’s pretty much expected, especially in early-stage investing.
“But wait,” you might ask, “if it only takes one winner, why not just bet on one or two companies?” Good question. The problem is, it’s hard to predict which startup will be that superstar. Even seasoned VCs get it wrong.
So it’s important to spread your investments around a few promising candidates to up your chances of catching that one breakaway success. Diversification is less about hedging every risk and more about giving yourself multiple shots on goal.
If you’re hoping to flip your investment in a year or two, venture capital might not be your best bet. These companies need time to develop, pivot, and scale. Some of the biggest success stories took several years (and quite a few speed bumps) before truly hitting that sweet spot. It’s the “slow burn” nature of venture capital: stressful for the impatient, potentially rewarding for those who keep the long-term view.
Everyday investors who aren’t full-time VCs now have more opportunities to jump in—thanks to private investment platforms. While many of these platforms give you curated deals or access to startup rounds that were previously exclusive, make sure you treat them as a starting point, not a final stamp of approval.
Dig into the companies’ strategies, read founder bios, and gauge market demand. The best platforms will offer detailed materials to help you see what’s truly special about each opportunity.
The next time you think about venture capital, shift your perspective. It’s not about a portfolio where everything wins. Instead, it’s about patiently planting seeds, nurturing them as you can, and understanding that your ultimate ROI may well hinge on that one unicorn that leaps ahead of the pack.
If you build your portfolio wisely, do thorough research, and stay the course, you’ll give yourself the best shot at landing the startup success story everyone dreams about. And if nothing else, remember: it only takes one. You don’t need five or six unicorns—you just need one that truly breaks away from the herd.
